This paperstudies the total electoral effects of refugee migration in Germany. It useshigh-frequency data on voting intentions from regular polls in a syntheticcontrol approach. This approach allows identifying the effects ofrefugee migration that do not depend on geographic proximity between refugeesand natives and thus cannot be identified using regional variation in refugeepresence. Our findings showthat the 2015 refugee inflow, on average, did not cause a shift towards moreanti-immigration voting. However, this masks a strong effect on politicalpolarization. Both, parties with strong pro- and anti-immigration platforms,gained as a consequence of the inflow but the effect is more pronounced foranti-immigration parties. Studies using regional variation in refugee presencedo not capture these effects.

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We examine how trade sanctions affect theallocation of workers across formal and informal employment. We analyse thecase of unprecedented trade sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012 and use a difference-in-differences approach to compare the probability ofworking in the informal sector before and after 2012 for individuals employedin industries with pre-existing different levels of exposure to internationaltrade. Our findings suggest that, in the short run, the informal sector absorbeda significant fraction of workers displaced by the trade shock caused by thesanctions, shedding light on a potentially important dimension of laborreallocation whereby trade sanctions can affect the economy of the targetcountry.

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We examine how trade sanctions affect theallocation of workers across formal and informal employment. We analyse thecase of unprecedented trade sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012 and use a difference-in-differences approach to compare the probability ofworking in the informal sector before and after 2012 for individuals employedin industries with pre-existing different levels of exposure to internationaltrade. Our findings suggest that, in the short run, the informal sector absorbeda significant fraction of workers displaced by the trade shock caused by thesanctions, shedding light on a potentially important dimension of laborreallocation whereby trade sanctions can affect the economy of the targetcountry.